PLAYS OF THE DAY THURSDAY,AUGUST 07,2014
THROW BACK THURSDAY
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RON RIPPEY'S SARATOGA PICKS
FOR THURSDAY, AUG. 7
AT SARATOGA
Post Time: 12:35
1 - Outstanding hurdle conditioner Sheppard prepped BRILLIANT MATCH on Polytrack to return to the jumps where he romped in last start over the hedges. KISSER N RUN won three in a row over the hurdles before faltering in last and beat OPERA HEROINE in that streak.
2 - STAR GRAZING gets to stretch out after pulling away as the 1-4 favorite and can take advantage of speed duel between DESERT VALENTINE and DEVIOUS MADDY.
3 - ANIMALIA has pedigree to come out running on lawn which Pletcher usually would not do trying to get a sprint race into a runner in debut. BROTHER O'CONNELL is drilling quicker for debut than CHIEF KITTEN.
4 - MICROMANAGE, cross entered Wednesday, may opt for this drop-down spot preferring to stay on main track instead of grass. IRSAAL won two straight before lunging into gate cost him a chance in last. DON DULCE looks ready to go longer., but has habit of placing second.
5 - THE LADY'S CRUISEN gets more distance and sinks into claimer for the first time. TRANSPLENDID needs fast pace. MISS MOTIVATION has price optimistically doubled and picks up Bravo after moving into new barn.
6 - Q TWO awoke at 4-5 when dropped in class. Don't be fooled by slow time on deep track. CHRISANDLORISPOSSE and NAVAJO CA LO could race each other into defeat if either doesn't get loose on front end.
7 - MAKE YOUR POINT has hit board in 5 of 7 races, been favored in 3 of past 4 and keeps Castellano. Reverses finish with KEVIN'S STEEL. MANNER OF SPEAKING gets Lasix for return from winter hiatus.
8 - HEART DOCTOR (BEST BET) has been in the money in 9 of 15 grass sprints, has a race over the track and doesn't mind yielding turf. Gets perfect setup if GOLDEN STORY and OTOKOGI engage in front-end duel.
9 - GHURAIR plunges from Grade 1 United Nations with proven ability to get the distance. RED RIFLE rebounded from loss to Palace Malice with second-place finish against runner who loves this course. REFLECTING drops from stakes. Likes marathon-like distances.
10 - GU GU BEANS gets huge rider swap to Castellano and defeats HOME TO CARROWKEEL again. JENNYS CREEK shortens up as beaten 6-5 favorite. One to beat
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NICK TAMMMARO'S SARATOGA PICKS
Saratoga - 8/7/2014
Race 1-
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1ST #4 KISSER N RUN
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2ND #5 OPERA HEROINE
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3RD #3 BRILLIANT MATCH
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#4 KISSER N RUN enters off an uncharacteristically bad performance last time out, and entered that event with three consecutive victories. Her trainer has a win at the meet with a longshot and just missed another in last Thursday’s AP Smithwick. #5 OPERA HEROINE returns off a brief layoff for a trainer that is 25% with jumpers at the Spa coming off 60-120 day breaks ($2.23 ROI). This mare has not won in almost three years but has run numerous competitive races during that period. #3 BRILLIANT MATCH is back over the jumps after breaking her maiden on the flat last time out at Presque Isle. This will be her third start off a layoff and everything this barn starts over the hurdles has to be given extra consideration.
Race 2-
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1st #1 STAR GRAZING
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2ND #3 LEGALLY BAY
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3RD #5 DEVIOUS MADDY
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#1 STAR GRAZING goes 2nd off a layoff after breaking her maiden in her first start of 2014. She defeated a filly who came back to win for fun here at Saratoga, and trainer Jimmy Jerkens is a robust 29% with dirt routers coming off of maiden wins ($3.34 ROI). This filly is a half to the Grade I placed Friend or Foe, so the extra distance should do her no harm. #3 LEGALLY BAY faced open company last time out and pushed the pace before tiring late at odds of 26-1. This field is softer than the one she faced last time, and the likelihood of a decent pace will allow her to relax early and get the jump on the late runners. #5 DEVIOUS MADDY will be re-united with Taylor Rice, who was aboard for her maiden victory two starts back. She was ridden quite passively last time out and was pace compromised that afternoon, so a slightly more aggressive ride will help her chances.
Race 3-
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1st #3 BROTHER O’CONNELL
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2ND #1 MIDNIGHT NICK
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3RD #7 CHIEF KITTEN
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#3 BROTHER O’CONNELL is bred beautifully for turf and hails from a barn that does very well with firsters on the lawn. He is kin to 2 turf winners, including Thurgood, who won for this barn here on opening weekend. His 2nd dam is Coretta, who narrowly missed in the inaugural Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf back in 1999. The lengthy workouts this colt has posted will help him get this demanding distance. #1 MIDNIGHT NICK has two races worth of experience and now switches surfaces for trainer Gary Contessa. Progeny of Congaree win their turf debuts at a rate of 11%, and this colt is kin to 3x turf winner Midnight Billy.#7 CHIEF KITTEN is by high percentage turf and win early sire Kitten’s Joy and hails from the top notch barn of Chad Brown. His dam was a dirt sprint winner, but she is kin to 3 turf winners. This colt’s worktab portends a strong effort on debut.
Race 4-
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1st #4 DON DULCE
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2ND #5 MICROMANAGE
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3RD #2 IRSAAL
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#4 DON DULCE was pace compromised last time out when 4th in the Salvator Mile at Monmouth. The pace in that race did not develop as it appeared to on paper, but this gelding still finished strongly to round out the superfecta at 27-1. He now goes 2nd off a claim and will stay within range from the outset today going a lengthier trip. It’s worth noting that the 1-2-3 finishers from the Salvator Mile have all come back to run very well since. #5 MICROMANAGE was scratched out of a turf event on Wednesday afternoon to go here. He has elevated his game in 2014, mostly because he’s been going longer distances. The Suburban was simply too tough for him, but this is a far softer field that presents a pace scenario that’ll allow him to stay close throughout. #2 IRSAAL was out of the gate slowly last time out and wound up tiring in the waning stages. He is bred to go long and can be close to the pace from the outset this afternoon in his 2nd start off a brief layoff. This barn is struggling at the moment, but is sure to get things going quite soon.
Race 5-
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1st #5 THE LADY’S CRUISEN
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2ND #9 READ IT AND WEEP
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3RD #3 TRANSPLENDID
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#5 THE LADY’S CRUISEN stretches out in her 3rd career start for trainer Linda Rice and drops in for a tag. This barn is 33% with turf routers dropping into maiden sellers, good for a $2.73 ROI and this filly was compromised last time out by a very firm and speed-favoring turf course. These connections have been on a tear in recent days and this filly figures to be actively involved from the opening bell. #9 READ IT AND WEEP drops in class as well in her 3rd career outing. She showed increased speed last time out here on opening day and tired late under today’s pilot. This barn is 21% with maiden turfers dropping in for a tag, good for a $6.27 ROI. The class relief should bring about an improved effort. #3 TRANSPLENDID goes 2nd off a layoff and was a fast-closing third last time out as a beaten favorite. This class level clearly agreed with her and she’ll get plenty of pace to run at once again this afternoon.
Race 6-
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1st #5 NAVAJO CA LO
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2ND #1 Q TWO
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3RD #7 CHRISANDLORISPOSSE
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#5 NAVAJO CA LO returns off a brief layoff after checking in a solid 2nd in a similar N2L event downstate. He showed increased speed that afternoon and was well clear for the place dough when all was said and done. There’s a modicum of speed signed up in this septet, which should enable jockey Luis Saez to keep this son of Majestic Warrior within range from the start. #1 Q TWO faces winners for the first time after breaking his maiden last time out at Churchill Downs. He was able to get away with very soft fractions that afternoon before pulling clear late under today’s pilot. Trainer Dale Romans is 28% with dirt routers coming off of maiden wins, good for a $3.57 ROI so another strong effort is expected from this colt. #7 CHRISANDLORISPOSSE is new to the barn of Tom Bush and races for a tag for the first time in this spot. He has faced NY bred allowance company of late and should benefit from the move to the claiming ranks for this capable new trainer.
Race 7-
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1st #6 FIRE SHIP
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2ND #4 MANNER OF SPEAKING
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3RD #9 MAKE YOUR POINT
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In #6 FIRE SHIP’s first turf start, she set a very strong pace before getting collared late. In her 2nd turf outing, she was out of the gate poorly before making a bold wide move into the lane. At the end of the race, this daughter of Colonel John had covered 59 feet more than the winner, which is an incredible margin at that trip. She will benefit if allowed to race closer to the early pace and she can clearly handle the turf. #4 MANNER OF SPEAKING returns off a long layoff in her first start for trainer Linda Rice. This barn is just 1 for its last 14 with maidens on turf at Saratoga stretching out from sprints to routes. That is the only real negative, as this filly’s two races last year were both good enough to win this thing. #9 MAKE YOUR POINT was 3rd, just in front of Fire Ship in her last start, which was this filly’s best race to date. She is a versatile daughter of Not For Love who can stay close to the pace if it is moderate, and the meets top pilot is signed up.
Race 8-
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1st #9 CASA CREEK
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2ND #1 MOON SONG
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3RD #4 DEFIANT
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#9 CASA CREEK endured a brutal trip last time out in a tough N1X on Belmont Stakes eve. He was away from the gate poorly then was steadied repeatedly by Gary Stevens. Thus, this son of E Dubai is deserving of another chance once again sprinting on the lawn, and his ugly recent running line will lead to his price drifting up. #1 MOON SONG is back on turf and deserves another opportunity after only trying it once on debut for his prior trainer. He is kin to turf winners King Ledley and Mount Holiday and has the speed to hold his inside position and use it to his advantage. If he gets a cozy spot just off the pace, he’ll be a major threat for top honors. #4 DEFIANT exits a smashing win at Monmouth, his 2nd wire-to-wire win of 2014 for Patricia Farro. He has he speed to get clear of this field and the leading rider down at Monmouth comes up to take the call. Look for him to get clear in the opening stages.
Race 9-
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1st #1 GHURAIR
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2ND #7 TETRADRACHM
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3RD #3 RED RIFLE
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#1 GHURAIR was compromised by a poor trip and a slow pace in the United Nations last time out at Monmouth. He wound up finishing 6th beaten a scant margin and now takes a sizable drop in class. There’s not a great deal of pace in this group, but he overcame a poor setup when victorious on Belmont Stakes day. Look for him to pack a mighty wallop in the final quarter-mile. #7 TETRADRACHM is in for a tag for trainer Bill Mott as he returns from a brief layoff. Mott is 19% with turf routers racing for a tag for the first time, good for a $2.06 ROI and this son of Badge of Silver has competed well against much tougher this year. His ability to stay close to the early pace makes him even more appealing. #3 RED RIFLE is the one to catch as he goes 2nd off a brief layoff for leading trainer Todd Pletcher. He wired the field in the Maxxam Gold Cup on dirt earlier this year, and showed turf ability when 2nd most recently to Plainview. If able to get clear in here, he’ll be a major threat to go the distance.
Race 10-
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1st #5 BARRIER TO ENTRY
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2ND #4 HONEYCHILD
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3RD #7 ROSE QUARTZ
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#5 BARRIER TO ENTRY is the one to catch as she makes her 2nd turf start for trainer Pat Kelly. She made a clear lead last time out before tiring late, and now gets an upgrade at pilot to Hall of Famer Alex Solis. There is little other confirmed speed in this affair and that will only make this filly even tougher. Should she get clear, she will be tough to catch. #4 HONEYCHILD is new to the barn of George Weaver as she returns off a brief layoff. This filly has sprinted on the weeds before and showed ability in her first turf outing for Kenny McPeek. Weaver is 25% with turf sprinters coming back from 60-120 day breaks, good for a $2.14 ROI. #7 ROSE QUARTZ cuts back in distance in her first start off a claim by Joe Orseno. She should be on the move late this afternoon and will benefit if the pace is fast, as her new trainer does quite well with turfers cutting back from routes to sprints
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| Comments from the Professor, our "Horse Race Ace" handicapper: |
| Oh Daddy Oh should have class enough in the 4th. |
Race 1
| 1 | City Ride | Tyler Baze | Mike Harrington | 5-2 |
| 4 | Jilly Juice | Elvis Trujillo | Walther Solis | 6-1 |
| 8 | Don't Needa Reason | Drayden Van Dyke | Peter Miller | 3-1 |
Race 2
| 2 | When I'm Calling U | Drayden Van Dyke | Caesar Dominguez | 5-2 |
| 1 | Among the Stars | Agapito Delgadillo | Jeff Metz | 8-1 |
| 6 | She's Flush | Tiago Pereira | Gary Sherlock | 7-2 |
Race 3
| 7 | Verraco | Mike Smith | James Cassidy | 5-1 |
| 8 | Social Request | Martin Pedroza | Adam Kitchingman | 7-2 |
| 1 | Southeast Asia | Fernando Perez | Barry Abrams | 6-1 |
Race 4
| 3 | Oh Daddy Oh | Joseph Talamo | Peter Miller | 2-1 |
| 2 | Happy Idea | Drayden Van Dyke | Bob Hess, Jr. | 5-2 |
| 4 | Easy Topper | Martin Garcia | Steven Miyadi | 10-1 |
Race 5
| 8 | Empire Cat | Fernando Perez | Vann Belvoir | 7-2 |
| 7 | Whoyougonnacall | Joseph Talamo | Philip D'Amato | 5-1 |
| 3 | Wilding | Rafael Bejarano | Jerry Hollendorfer | 5-2 |
Race 6
| 6 | Tribal Jewel | Rafael Bejarano | Jerry Hollendorfer | 3-1 |
| 4 | Slammer Time | Kayla Stra | Jeff Bonde | 8-1 |
| 5 | Causeithertz | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | 8-1 |
Race 7
| 7 | Journey On | Martin Pedroza | Doug O'Neill | 5-1 |
| 8 | Tribal Gal | Tyler Baze | Kory Owens | 5-1 |
| 2 | Senza Fina | Fernando Perez | Mark Glatt | 10-1 |
Race 8
| 4 | Expo and Fig | Joseph Talamo | Philip D'Amato | 7-2 |
| 10 | It Is Living Water | Tiago Pereira | A.C. Avila | 5-1 |
| 2 | Warrior's Ridge | Kent Desormeaux | Leonard Powell | 9-2 |
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KEVIN COX'S PICKS AND ANALYSIS
-Interesting day for us at Del Mar yesterday, as we popped for 2 winners @ $8 and $29, but more importantly we gave out the rolling pick 5 ( 3x3x3x3x3=$486 ) for $10,120 !! ( $2,530 if you bet it for .50 )
-Stat of the day : From the tracks we've worked : Favorites on poly---23.7% Favorite's on turf and dirt tracks---38.1% Eeeesh.
-On the contest front, the missus and I sit in 31st and 55th respectively from a field of 275 as we head into day 2 today at Saratoga.
-As for our Saratoga Special selection yesterday, well the horse did not want to move in warmups, and in reality should've been scratched. When finally forced to the start, it was a tangled mess, with him going sideways, the starter holding onto him, yuck. They refunded all bets, and our remaining 2 selections ran 2-1, keeping us pretty consistent in these affairs.
As for today...
SARATOGA
RACE 1 : Today is day 2 of the Saratoga Handicapping Contest, and as the norm, they
are not permitting steeplechase racing to be part of the event, which is a shame. These
thoroughbreds are sound, talented animals, and more importantly --- active. We continue
our support of them here, and in today's opener we'll side with the #4 KISSER N RUN. In
a race devoid of much early speed, ( Lillehammer is off a year layoff, and may need one )
this Valentine trainee has by far won the most jump races in the field ( 5 ), and although
has sent in the past, possesses enough tractability to rate behind 'Hammer, and scoot
past a mile and a half in. #3 BRILLIANT MATCH won by a deck of cards when last hurdling,
and that merits inclusion in any type of race. #1 CAT FEATHERS is 4:1-2-0 over the course
Del Mar - 8/7
| Race 1 | 1.Easter Fever | 2.Where Is My Mind | 3.Don't Need A Reason |
#2 EASTER FEVER begins her career today for Bob Hess, and has been working moderately for debut. Bloodlines are showing average poly breeding, but in reality, needn't be the next coming of Zenyatta to beat this bunch. Tepid nod. #7 WHERE IS MY MIND is another firster with a slightly better work pattern, but sire is as of yet, unproven with synthetic runners, so we'll incorporate underneath today. #7 DON'T NEED A REASON is the most formful of the 5 signed on with racing experience, rolling a pair of "2's" to start things out ( one against the boys, no less ). Nomad tries her 3rd different venue from as many starts , gets trainer change to Peter Miller, and drew well here. Watch out.
| Race 2 | 1. When I'm Calling You | 2.Analemma | 3.Among The Stars |
#2 WHEN I'M CALLING YOU is a check earning fool, having hit the board in 14 of 15, with just about all of those on the synthetic. Nothing to dislike with this one, and was 4+ clear of the show horse in last. Always on the fringes, but I really can't see making an excuse for any other in here. #7 ANALEMMA has an interesting name, and things were looking good for the connections of this miss after she was claimed from winning debut for fifty big ones, but the wheels came off in next two when showing speed and spitting the bit. Plummets down the class ladder today, and which half of twoface do we get ? #1 AMONG THE STARS steps up enough after troubled trip in race which she was claimed from. Likes the poly and could be right there when the song is over
| Race 3 | 1.Southeast Asia | 2.Kenji's Thunder | 3.Verraco |
#1 SOUTHEAST ASIA was a mite excited in the gate of debut, but managed to split the field nonetheless at 12-1. Was claimed for 40 that day, and Abrams must like what he has, as he instantly steps him up to the 70 level. #5 KENJI'S THUNDER showed improved speed when stretching out on the lawn in latest, and now does the ol' cut back/drop down/turf-to-dirt move. Majah playah. #7 VERRACO had two left feet at the onset of last, but still managed to produe the highest Beyer in the field ( 47 ). Listed at 5-1 morning line, and that would make it for quite the early Christmas.
| Race 4 | 1.Time To Go Robo | 2.Oh Daddy Oh | 3.Easy Topper |
#5 TIME TO GO ROBO steps up some off of game win at Los Al 26 days ago, but the hike doesn't trouble me as this one is by far the most consistent poly performer in the field, ( 13:2-2-4 record over it ). Not facing any standouts in here, and 8-1 seems generous. #3 OH DADDY OH was eased up at Pleasanton last out, but drops to career low today, and will be on the engine early. Winner if sound. Miyadi sends up the white flag for #4 EASY TOPPER, dropping himway down today after 7+ months on the shelf. Has a 4:1-1-1 poly record, and is another who could cause a ruckus if 100%.
| Race 5 | 1.Jet Trick | 2.Whoyougonnacall | 3.Tribal Echo |
#4 JET TRICK has just been working moderately for debut, but sire Jet Phone gets a whopping 33% ( 8-24 ) with ALL 2YO runners, and that's enough for me in this weak affair. Whoyougonnacall ? Well, I'm gonna call a shrink if I don't go on a nice hot streak soon. That being said, the #7 WHOYOUGAONNACALL, a January bred by Ghostzapper, is nicely bred for the synthetic, and D'Amato, not currently in "supertrainer" territory, is still able to pop at any time. 5-1 solid. #1TRIBAL ECHO has been flopping of late, but may be the controlling speed in this spot, and could be long gone if able to secure some daylight late.
| Race 6 | 1.Uncle Dave | 2.Foolhardy | 3.Tribal Jewel |
Why is the #3 UNCLE DAVE 20-1 ? Yeah, I know, he's a smidgen cheap, but is decently bred for the poly ( nice turf numbers as well ), Beyers before the L/O were solid enough, and you're getting Baze on a speedster. A little thrill for your $20 bill ? #1 FOOLHARDY was claimed at Churchill for a quarter, and having shown nothing that day is entered right back at the same level. If you can be foriving enough to draw a line through that last effort, then that prior form ain't half bad. 1-3 on the poly. #6 TRIBAL JEWEL, the class of the field, plummets today for Hollendorfer, who increases his win rate by 50% when teaming up w/Bejarano. Logical inclusion.
| Race 7 | 1.Senza Fina | 2.Heat Trap | 3.Journey On |
There's a couple of old adages in horse racing : "Never bet on a horse to do something he's never done before." and "Always play an undefeated horse at good odds." Well, those expressions will kinda be utilized in today's 7th. The #2 SENZA FINA, while not necessarily undefeated, is, in fact unbeaten on the poly in two starts. The adjusted figures from those races were 82 & 83.5, and while not spectacular, display a consistency that I'm digging. You want more consistency ? 7-7 ITM in non turf races. 10-1 is as juicy as a December clementine. #1 HEAT TRAP is another "Steady Eddie" who can send or rate & always seems to be right there on the line. Nice 2nd at this trip last year when 6 lengths clear of the show horse. #7 JOURNEY ON simply whistled a year ago right here, and although coming off a 3 month respite, posesses the speed and back class to make her prescence felt in this spot. O'Neill/Pedroza just about double their rate in tandem. BEATABLE FAVORITE : And in regards to our second adage, the #6 CLEARLY CONFUSED is oh for 4 on the poly, ( all at cheaper levels ) and has miserable Beyers to boot. Why the hell would we take 3-1 here ?
| Race 8 | 1.Expo and Fig | 2.Warrior's Ridge | 3.Blame it on Tekela |
#4 EXPO AND FIG is our K.I.S.S. horse to wrap up the day : A nice race over the course last year, huge drop in class, trainer at an obscene 40% with these L/O types, and a sensational bullet work in the holster. Even Isaac Newtown could come up with this 'Fig'. #2 WARRIOR's RIDGE has been a fringe player for the last 2 years, but now drops a bit, and switches over to the poly, a surface that transforms 14% trainer Powell into a 22% specialist. Additionally ( and furthermore, and heretofore ! ), him and Sleepy are a whopping 3-8 when shaking hands in the paddock. Things to like, so include him in your rolling bets. #6BLAME IT ON TEKELA had a nice debut over 13 months ago, then entered the horsewitness protection program, where he resurfaced at Prairie Meadows ( Don't think I would blend in in Iowa ! ). That start was crummy so he was shelved once again, and now the 'surrender' signal has been issued as he's dropped once again. Pairing the dice, for sure, but could make for a bombola superfecta.
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BIG HOMIES SHOW BETTING
IF YOU ARE A CONSERVATIVE BETTER THEN TRY BIG HOMIES SHOW BETSSTART OUT WITH A $2 SHOW BET ON HIS 1ST PICK IF IT DONT WIN NEXT PICK PLAY $4 IF SOME REASON THAT DONT HIT NEXT PICK PLAY $6.
IF THAT REALLY HAPPENS YOUR NEXT BET WOULD BE $12 (HIGHLY UNLIKELY THOU)
OBJECT IS TO MAKE $$ YOU WONT MAKE ALOT BUT YOU SHOULDN'T LOSE
SO WHEN YOU LOSE A CERTAIN RACE DOUBLE UP YOUR BET SO THE DENOMINATIONS WOULD BE $2 $4 $6 $12 $24 $48 (IF THE SHOW PLAY DONT HIT AFTER $48 PLAY ITS TIME TO CALL IT A DAY!!!
NOW FOR THE PICKS
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SARATOGA
RACE 2: 1
RACE 3:6
RACE 4: 5
RACE 5: 5
RACE 6: 1
RACE 7: 4
RACE 8: 4
RACE 9: 1
RACE 10: 3
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GOOD LUCK TODAY IF YOU LIKE BIG HOMIES SHOW PICKS AND WANT MORE FORM OTHER TRACKS THEN CLICK HERE TO EMAIL ME WITH THE TRACK AND ILL EMAIL YOU THE PICKS
